Rusch Solid In Two AAA Appearances

The Brewers hoped that a trip to Indianapolis would be just what the doctor ordered for struggling pitcher Glendon Rusch. Thus far, it appears to have done the trick. After a disappointing 1-11 start for Milwaukee, the 28-year old southpaw returned to Triple-A last week for the first time since 1999. In two starts, Monday at Pawtucket and Friday versus Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, Rusch has put up solid numbers that the Brewers hope are a sign of things to come.

                   ERA    WHIP    K:BB   
--------------------------------------
AAA - Indy        1.71    0.71    6.50
MLB - Milw        6.50    2.08    1.71

It remains to be seen whether the dramatic statistical improvement is a result of anything more than luck but reports out of Indy appear promising. Rusch will make two more starts before being reevaluated by the Brewers, at which point he will either return to the big leagues or be given his release. If all continues to go well, look for Glendon to be back in the rotation soon.

In other Glendon Rusch news, Aaron Gleeman has made a pretty good case that his poor statistics are the result of bad luck more than anything else. By comparing Glendon's Defense Independent Pitching Stats (or DIPS) with those of Barry Zito, Gleeman contends that the biggest reason for Rusch's struggles is an incredibly high percentage of balls in play that drop for hits.

Despite nearly identical [DIPS] - strikeouts, walks, homers - Glendon Rusch got lit up to the tune of a 8.61 ERA and was demoted to Triple-A, while Barry Zito has a 2.84 ERA and is a likely candidate to be the AL's starting pitcher in the all-star game. ... I guess life just aint fair sometimes, especially when you're pitching for the Brewers.

While anyone who has watched him pitch will no doubt agree that he was struggling, it is interesting to note how small the difference between success and failure is for a Major League pitcher. Hopefully Glendon will have better luck when he makes his return to Milwaukee.

Kinney Masterful As Brewers Crush Twins

It was sweet revenge for Matt Kinney Friday night. After a subpar outing last weekend against his former club, Kinney threw a complete game and allowed only a run on 8 hits to help the Brewers rout the Twins. The complete game was the first of 26-year old Kinney's career and it upped his record to 6-6 on the season. After two rough starts in a row, Kinney's ERA is back to a respectable 4.26, 3 one-hundredths less than Ben Sheets, the only other Brewers' starter under 5.

Thankfully, run support was not a problem. In one of their more impressive offensive showings of the year, the Crew jacked 4 home runs en route to a 13 run night in which all of the Brewers' starters had at least one hit. Scott Podsednik started things off in the third with a two-out double off of Twins' starter Kyle Lohse that scored Royce Clayton and Eric Young. In the fourth, Brooks Kieschnick (the designated hitter in this interleague contest) ripped a grounder to right and Dustin Mohr let the ball get all the way to the wall, allowing Richie Sexson and John Vander Wal to score. Kieschnick ended up at third with nobody out but the Crew failed to get him home. The scoring continued in the fifth when Vander Wal blasted a Lohse pitch into the upper deck in right for a two-run homer, his eight of the season.

With the game 6-0 in the bottom of the sixth, the Twins got on the board with a two-out double by Torii Hunter that plated Dustin Mohr. Kinney then got Doug Mientkiewicz to pop out to end the inning... and Minnesota was done for the evening.

Looking to add some cushion, the Brewers rallied in the seventh and Richie Sexson ended his 11-game homerless streak with an opposite field blast off of Johan Santana that scored Podsednik and Geoff Jenkins. Michael Nakamura came on in the eighth but he was unable to stop the bleeding. With two-out and the bases loaded, Sexson smoked a single to right that brought home Clayton and Eddie Perez.

Already up 11 to 1, the Crew added two more in the ninth when Kieschnick and Perez went deep, back-to-back style. Both home runs barely cleared the short porch in left but they added an appropriate exclamation mark to the offensive outbreak that consumed the Twins' pitching staff.

All told, the Brewers managed 13 runs on 19 hits including 4 home runs and 4 doubles. The totals are impressive:

                    AB     H    BB     R   RBI
----------------------------------------------
Eric Young           5     2     0     1     0
Scott Podsednik      5     3     1     2     2
Geoff Jenkins        6     1     0     1     0
Richie Sexson        5     3     0     2     5
John Vander Wal      4     2     1     2     2
Wes Helms            5     1     0     0     0
Brooks Kieschnick    5     2     0     1     2
Eddie Perez          5     2     0     2     1
Royce Clayton        4     3     0     2     0

The Brewers move to 33-45 including 3 straight wins and 5 of their last seven. The victory takes the club to 18-18 on the road this year, the second best record in the division (the Cubs are 21-18). Saturday evening begins the pitching odyssey that will see Dave Burba make his return to the big leagues and Matt Ford make his Major League debut as a starter. The Twins are just looking to get back in the win column: the club is now 2 games behind the Royals for first place in the AL Central and only 3 and a half in front of the resurrected White Sox.

The Brewers' Blogosphere

For a club that hasn't won a pennant in more than two decades, the Brewers are awfully well represented on the world wide web. I wanted to take this opportunity to plug a few sites that deserve your bandwidth:

• First and foremost, BrewerFan.net is one of the best team-specific baseball sites on the internet. Check that - until proven otherwise, it is the best team-specific site on the 'net. In addition to the extensive statistics and player bio's, be sure to check out the Power 50, a weekly listing of top prospects, and the Daily Brew, a news archive that is updated somewhat frequently.
• Second, be sure to check out Al's Ramblings on a daily basis for thought-provoking and entertaining commentary with a sabermetric bent. Al has been kind enough to plug this site numerous times and his generosity is very much appreciated.
• Third, another site that I found in my referrer logs is Cheesehead Sports, an oft-updated blog that covers all aspects of the Wisconsin sports world (including, of course, the Crew). I'm not sure yet who the author is but the commentary is entertaining and worth a spot on your daily reading list.
• Finally, be sure to visit Valpope's Pulpit, the weblog of BrewerFan.net frequenter J.R. Radcliffe. The site covers a divergence of topics but Brewers-related postings are frequent. Without even knowing it, I linked to a fabulous article penned by J.R. that was published at MLB.com - be sure to read "Hart and Soul In Milwaukee" if you haven't already.

Hopefully Do The Brew can grow into a valuable asset to the Brewers' Blogosphere. If you've come across any sites that I haven't discussed or that aren't included in the blogroll (at left), please let me know. Comments, criticisms, and submissions are also appreciated!

Jenkins Goes Deep, Crew Takes Series

Mark Prior was on his game Thursday afternoon. The 22-year old ace of the Chicago Cubs went 8 strong innings and struck out a career-high 16 batters while walking none. He allowed only 2 earned runs on 4 hits but was allowed to throw 126 pitches before finally giving way to closer Joe Borowski.

Dusty Baker has a reputation for abusing his pitching staff but this seems to be a new low for the Cubs' skipper. In his last ten starts, Prior has not thrown less than 100 pitches and has thrown more than 110 six times:

126 - 06/26 vs. Milwaukee
107 - 06/19 at Cincinnati
119 - 06/14 at Toronto
106 - 06/08 vs. New York Yankees
124 - 06/03 vs. Tampa Bay
123 - 05/28 vs. Pittsburgh
113 - 05/23 at Houston
107 - 05/17 at St. Louis
124 - 05/12 at Milwaukee
104 - 05/06 vs. Milwaukee

That's 1,153 pitches since the first week of May or an average of just over 115 pitches per start. This for a guy in his first year in the Majors and for an arm that the franchise's future is being built around. Have the Cubs learned nothing from the Kerry Wood debacle several years ago? Or from A.J. Burnett's injury this year? Or from the hundreds of other Major and Minor League pitchers who have become more familiar than they would like with former Yankee Tommy John?

Despite the negligence on the part of Baker, Prior was masterful against the Brewers. Keith Ginter, Geoff Jenkins, Richie Sexson, Keith Osik, and Enrique Cruz fanned two times each while Wes Helms was set down three times. Oddly enough, Wayne Franklin was the only starter not to strike out against Prior - but Brooks Kieshnick, who pinch hit in the eighth, took care of that in short order. Prior finished the game strong by striking out the side in both the seventh and eighth, quickly retiring Brewers' hitters one-after-another.

The only blemish on Prior's record was a two-run homer by Keith Ginter, his second in as many days. After a two-out single by Scott Podsednik in the sixth in what could have been the at-bat of the day, Ginter deposited a 2-1 fastball into the net in left. Ginter got the start at second while Enrique Cruz took Clayton's spot at shortstop, a rarity for manager Ned Yost, whose allegiance to the veteran middle infielders is well-documented.

Despite the dominant outing by Prior, Milwaukee starter Wayne Franklin kept his club in the game. The 29-year old lefty tossed 6 and 1/3 innings of 6-hit, 3-run baseball and struck out 7 while walking 4. The Cubs got on the board in the fourth on a groundout by Alex Gonzalez that scored Moises Alou. After singling, Alou had moved to third on a double by Eric Karros but Franklin managed to wiggle out of the jam without further damage. An inning later, Sammy Sosa continued his hot streak by blasting a two-run bomb to left.

In another odd managerial move, Yost brought in struggling reliever Luis Vizcaino to face Sammy Sosa in the seventh with the score still 3-2. For the second time in two days, Vizcaino managed a punchout, this time getting Sammy to swing through a hanging slider that was deceptive in its lack of movement. He proceeded to get Alou to fly out, thus ending the inning.

Setup man extraordinaire Leo Estrella came on to pitch the eighth and promptly disposed of the Cubs in order. In what is becoming routine, Estrella needed only five pitches to retire the side, inducing two groundouts and a pop-fly to center.

With Prior's pitch count already astronomical, Dusty Baker brought in Joe Borowski to face the top of the Brewers' order, only a day after the closer threw 24 pitches in an inning and a third. Unlike yesterday, however, he didn't have his "A" game and the Crew quickly took advantage.

Scott Podsednik led off with a single to center and stole second; Ginter followed with a walk. The red-hot Geoff Jenkins stepped to the plate and, after fouling off a tough pitch, got ahead in the count 2-1. Borowski hung a breaking ball and Jenkins sent it over the wall in right and out onto Sheffield Avenue, giving the Brewers a 5-3 lead. The Cubs got out of the inning without any further damage but the emotional tone of the game had clearly changed.

Mike DeJean took advantage of the good fortune by setting down Lenny Harris, Troy O'Leary, and Mark Grudzielanek with only 5 pitches to pick up his 16th save of the season. All told, each Brewer reliever threw only 5 pitches to the walkophobic Cubs and together they managed to put together 2 and 2/3rds innings of hitless, scoreless baseball.

The win edges the Brewers ever-closer to the fourth place spot in the NL Central. Now 32-45, the Crew is 9 games behind Chicago and a game behind the Pirates. The loss puts the Cubs in jeopardy of dropping out of the top spot in the division and drops the club to 4-6 over their last ten contests. A boisterous 39,711 took in the game on a beautiful afternoon at Wrigley, upping the three-game series total to an impressive 118,457. The Brewers head to Minneapolis for a weekend series while the scuffling Cubs make the trip to Chicago's South Side to take on the surging White Sox.

Redemption at Wrigley

After a dismal showing last night, the Brewers came from behind to decimate the Cubs bullpen en route to a 12-6 victory today at Wrigley Field. Ben Sheets remained unbeaten against Chicago despite allowing 5 runs, 4 of them earned, and 6 hits over 6 innings. He walked two, struck out 8, and surrendered a home run to Moises Alou before leaving for a pinch hitter with the Crew down 5-1.

That's when the Brewers' offense came to life. Keith Ginter led off the inning with his first home run of the year off of Mike Remlinger and Scott Podsednik followed with a single to right. Geoff Jenkins doubled, moving Podsednik to third, and Richie Sexson took first after being hit by a pitch from Antonio Alfonseca who had come on to relieve Remlinger. Wes Helms came through with a solid single to center that scored Podsednik and Jenkins and John Vander Wal added a single to load the bases. Keith Osik grounded into a fielder's choice at second but Alfonseca failed to cover first and allowed Sexson to score. Royce Clayton ended the rally with a groundball to shortstop but the Brewers had climbed all the way back to tie the game, 5-5.

Curtis Leskanic needed only 13 pitches to dispose of the Cubs in the bottom half of the seventh. After Ramon Martinez grounded out, Leskanic struck out Mark Grudzielanek and Jose Hernandez.

Alfonseca continued to struggle in the eighth, allowing a bunt single to Eric Young after Enrique Cruz grounded out. Young stole second on an ill-advised attempt that Jose Hernandez mishandled or he would have been thrown out easily by former-Brewer Paul Bako. Scott Podsednik lined out hard to center and the Cubs brought in Mark Guthrie to face the red-hot Jenkins with two outs and Young still at second. With two strikes against a tough left-hander, Jenkins came through again with a rocket up the middle that scored Young, who had moved to third on a wild pitch. Dusty Baker then brought in closer Joe Borowski who walked Sexson and struck out Helms to end the inning.

Ned Yost turned to Dan Kolb as the heart of the Cubs order came to the plate in the bottom of the eighth. He walked Corey Patterson to lead off the inning and he promptly took second on a wild pitch. He struck out Sammy Sosa with some high heat and then walked Moises Alou and Eric Karros to load the bases. Yost, having seen enough, brought on Valerio De Los Santos to face the left-handed hitting Lenny Harris. The former-Brewer hit a sacrifice fly to center that scored Patterson and De Los Santos got Paul Bako to pop out to third.

Borowski set down the Brewers in short order in the ninth so the Cubs had a chance to win it in the bottom of the inning. Yost allowed De Los Santos to continue and he allowed a single by Ramon Martinez. Mark Grudzielanek bunted Martinez to second and Bobby Hill, pinch hitting for the pitcher, walked. Corey Patterson flied out to center leaving Sammy Sosa to hit with two on and two out in a tie game.

Who did Ned Yost turn to in this crucial situation? None other than Luis Vizcaino, he of the just-under-10 ERA who had only last night given up a 500+ foot bomb to Sosa. To the delight of Brewers' fans everywhere, Vizcaino struck out Sammy on four sliders.

With that, the game went to extra innings and Baker called on Todd Wellemeyer to keep the Cubs in the game. He did anything but. Brooks Kieschnick led off the inning with a home run to right field, his third of the year, and Eric Young followed with a single to center. Scott Podsednik drew his second walk of the day and Jenkins blasted an opposite field bomb. With a four run lead, Richie Sexson struck out and Wes Helms lined out to second. John Vander Wal walked and Eddie Perez hit a pinch-hit triple to deep right that scored Vander Wal. The relay throw from Grudzielanek was off the mark and Eddie scampered home to score the team's 12th run. Royce Clayton, in familiar fashion, struck out to end the inning.

As the Wrigley faithful headed for the exits, Mike DeJean retired the side in order with only 10 pitches to secure the Brewers victory. All told, the Cubs bullpen gave up 11 runs, 10 of which were earned, compared to only 1 run allowed by the Crew.

The offensive numbers for the four hitters at the top of Milwaukee's lineup are quite impressive:

Eric Young - 3/5, 2 R, 1 RBI
Scott Podsednik - 2/4, 2 BB, 2 R
Geoff Jenkins - 3/6, 2 R, 4 RBI
Richie Sexson - 1/2, 3 BB, 1 R

The four combined to go 9/17 with 7 runs scored, 5 runs batted in, and 5 walks. Every Brewer position player made an appearance (including hitter/pitcher Kieschnick) and only Leo Estrella and John Foster (and Matt Ford) were unused out of the pen.

Luis Vizcaino got the win while Wellemayer got the loss. The Brewers moved to 31-45 on the season, 4-6 in their last ten games, and are only percentage points behind the Pittsburgh Pirates for 5th place in the NL Central. The Cubs fell to 41-35, a half game ahead of the Astros and 10 in front of Milwaukee.

The Case For Keith Ginter

When the Brewers acquired Keith Ginter along with Wayne Franklin from the Houston Astros last fall as the "Player To Be Named Later" in a deal for Mark Loretta, it looked like they would have two solid players that would compete for a job in Spring Training. With Loretta, Jose Hernandez, Lenny Harris, and Tyler Houston all gone it seemed likely that Ginter, a 27 year old career minor leaguer, would win himself the third base job. Instead, manager Ned Yost and GM Doug Melvin brought in Wes Helms and Royce Clayton to fill the holes on the left side of the infield and Ginter was again relegated to bench duties.

In a year when the Brewers have publicly stated that their main goal is to "evaluate talent," the organization's decision to play Royce Clayton and Eric Young at the middle infield positions is troubling. While Scott Podsednik, Brady Clark, and Wes Helms have all been given opportunities to start, Keith Ginter has remained out of the lineup, appearing almost entirely in pinch-hitting and mop-up situations. Why should anyone care? After all, he is a career minor leaguer with less-than-stellar defensive skills. Why? Because he can hit.

The Minor League History

Born on May 5th of 1976, Keith Ginter was drafted in the tenth round of the 1998 June Draft after starring at Texas Tech University where he was a consensus All-American at second base and led the Red Raiders to Big 12 championships in both his junior and senior seasons. The 22 year old spent his first year as a professional with the Auburn Doubledays of the Class-A New York-Penn League. Playing on a team with future big leaguer Morgan Ensberg and other young Astros prospects, Ginter put up solid numbers - .315 average, .381 on-base percentage, .428 slugging percentage, .809 OPS, 13 home runs, 46 runs batted in, and 61 walks in 103 games and 376 at-bats. His 66 runs scored tied the league lead and he earned team MVP honors for the Doubledays. Among those he beat out for team MVP? Ensberg, Roy Oswalt, Tim Redding, Rodrigo Rosario, and Johan Santana.

After an impressive showing at Auburn, Ginter started his second year as a pro with the Kissimmee Cobras of the High-A Florida State League. After only a few weeks, it became obvious that opposing pitchers were overmatched. Over 9 games and 34 at-bats, he posted a .382 average, a .447 on-base percentage, .500 slugging percentage, and an OPS of .947 to go along with a homer, 6 RBI, and 4 walks. He was quickly promoted to Double-A Jackson of the Texas League and inserted into the lineup. Again, he was impressive: . 315 batting average, .452 on-base percentage, .515 slugging percentage, .966 OPS, 8 home runs, 41 runs batted in, 60 walks, and 55 runs scored in 71 games and 241 at-bats.

It was in 2000 that Ginter solidified himself as a top prospect for the Astros. After the Jackson club went out of business, Houston affiliated themselves with the Round Rock Express, also a member of the Texas League. Ginter was nothing short of spectacular:

.333 batting average, .434 on-base percentage, .580 slugging percentage, 1.014 OBP, 26 home runs, 92 runs batted in, 82 walks, 24 stolen bases, and 108 (!) runs scored in 125 games and 462 at-bats.

He was near the top of the Texas League in all offensive categories and won the batting title while also leading the league in OBP. He was named to the Double-A All Star team and got a cup of coffee with the Astros in September. Despite the small sample size, he did fairly well: .250 batting average, .333 on-base percentage, .625 slugging percentage, .958 OPS, 1 home run, 3 runs batted in, and a walk in 8 games. He was later named the 2000 Texas League Player of the Year.

Come 2001, it seemed like the time had come for Keith to get a shot at making the big league club full-time. Unfortunately, despite his performance at Round Rock, Ginter was sent to Triple-A New Orleans. As a Zephyr in the Pacific Coast League, Ginter was named to the Triple-A All Star team and posted solid statistics: .269 batting average, .355 on-base percentage, .464 slugging percentage, .819 OPS, 16 home runs, 70 runs batted in, 61 walks, and 77 runs scored in 132 games and 457 at-bats. Despite the continued production, he only saw one at-bat at the Major League level.

With the organization in love with Morgan Ensberg, a player that Ginter consistently out-produced throughout their time together in the minor leagues, and with Craig Biggio a fixture at second, it nonetheless seemed likely that Ginter would be given a shot to earn a bench spot with the Astros. Instead, the club signed Geoff Blum and sent Ginter back to New Orleans for another year at Triple-A.

Despite the obvious blow, Keith continued to produce well in 121 games and 435 at-bats: .264 batting average, .348 on-base percentage, .416 slugging percentage, .764 OPS, 12 home runs, 54 runs batted in, 56 walks, and 70 runs scored. He got another cup of coffee with the big league club, this time getting 5 at-bats in 7 games. He hit .200 with an on-base percentage of .429, a slugging percentage of .400, an OPS of .829, and two walks.

After being traded to Milwaukee, he saw action in another 20 games, this time hitting .275 with an on-base percentage of .413, slugging percentage of .471, OPS of .883, and one home run to go along with 12 walks.

All told, Keith Ginter has hit well at every level of baseball from college to limited action in the Major Leagues. His career numbers are impressive and the demonstrate a solid knowledge of the strike zone and an ability to hit for both average and power. While his home run totals are not gaudy, he has a ton of extra-base hits and his line-drive power could easily translate into higher home run numbers.

Why The Lack of MLB Opportunities?

As a hitter, Ginter has been compared to Craig Biggio - and that seems like a pretty accurate frame of reference. While he might not put up the same numbers as Biggio, it is certainly not out of the question. Over the course of his career, Biggio has averaged a .288 batting average, a .376 on-base percentage, a .433 slugging percentage, and an .809 OPS. Ginter has significantly less speed and is a lot less adept defensively but the two could be very similar offensive players, an interesting observation given that Biggio was responsible in large part for Houston's neglect of Ginter.

So why hasn't Keith been given an opportunity to play? In addition to the aforementioned surplus of infielders in Houston, Ginter was labeled early in his career as a poor defender. He was a second-baseman at Texas Tech and has spent most of his minor league career there, but he has also tried his hand at third-base, shortstop, and all three outfield positions as well as catcher. As a second-baseman, he is an average defender with okay range and a below-average arm. At third, his range is good but he lacks the throwing arm that most third-basemen are blessed with. He is a serviceable left fielder, a position that puts very little pressure on his arm, and is capable of playing the other two outfield spots as well as shortstop.

Is he a defensive genius? Certainly not. But he is more than serviceable at four-or-more positions and his bat more than makes up for the weak arm and mediocre range.

His 2003 Competition

It would be one thing if the Brewers were sacrificing Ginter's playing time to get younger prospects more time in the big leagues. But that is not the case. Instead, Ginter is riding the pine while Royce Clayton and Eric Young play everyday at second-base and shortstop. For a team that is evaluating talent, this decision makes little-to-no sense.

Royce Clayton is 33 years old and is making $1,500,000. Neither his career numbers nor his production this year warrant everyday playing time.

So far this year, he has posted a .213 batting average, a .300 on-base percentage, a .350 slugging percentage, and an OBP of .650. If it weren't for a torrent April, his numbers would be even more anemic. His supporters point to the fact that this is only one season and he's had a good career. Perhaps, but it depends on your definition of a "good career." From 1991 to present, he's hitting .256 with an on-base percentage of .310, a slugging percentage of .371, and an OPS of .681. Translation: he gets out 69% of the time and rarely gets extra-base hits. What's more, he has 415 walks in 5953 career plate appearances, or one walk ever 14.3 times he steps to the plate. On the other hand, he's struck out 997 times, or one every 5.97 plate appearances. He also averages only 3.83 pitches per plate appearance, more evidence of his inability to control the strike zone.

Those who support Clayton make one of two arguments (or both): first, he is a veteran leader, and second, he is an excellent defender.

As for the first argument, there has been no correlation between runs scored or team wins and "veteran leadership." I'm sure that Clayton is a great person and a good player to have around the clubhouse. But that doesn't prove that he should be in the lineup. In fact, if he is such a great teacher of the other players, wouldn't it make more sense for him to be on the bench? After all, isn't that where the coaches sit?

The second point has more validity but it relies on the notion that Clayton is the same player he was 5+ years ago. Yes, he rarely commits an error, as evidenced by his 4 this season. However, more accurate defensive metrics reveal him for what he is at this point in his career: a middle-of-the-pack shortstop. His range factor, a statistic that divides his putouts plus assists divided by innings played, is a respectable 4.44. However, it puts him behind a number of his peers including Orlando Cabrera, Jack Wilson, Rich Aurilia, Alex Gonzalez (Florida), Jose Hernandez, Rafael Furcal, and Cesar Izturis. His Zone Rating, too, reveals him to be only average. A measurement by STATS, Inc. that quantifies the percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical defensive "zone", Royce Clayton's ZR is .864, again putting him behind Cabrera, Izturis, and Gonzalez as well as Edgar Renteria and Alex Gonzalez (Chicago). Compared to all qualified shortstops in the Major Leagues, Clayton is slightly better than average in Zone Rating and slightly below average in Range Factor. All in all, an average defensive shortstop.

Those that want to wish away the years and pretend that Clayton is the same player he was in 1995 are doing a disservice to the rebuilding Brewers. Royce Clayton is simply a very poor hitter and only a mediocre defender. He could be a valuable bench player and in that role might provide some "veteran leadership" to help the younger players along. But a starting shortstop in the Major Leagues? No way.

On the other side of the second base bag is 36 year old Eric Young. In his second year with the Brewers, EY is making a smooth $2,000,000 and putting up less-than-stellar numbers. Thus far, he is hitting .245 with an OBP of .331, a slugging percentage of .419, and an OPS of .750. This wouldn't be so bad until you realize that Young is a poor fielder and is the Brewers' leadoff man. Even absent those facts, his production has not been up to snuff and certainly is not enough to justify his excessive playing time given his age. Again, supporters of EY will point to several things: first, his career numbers, second, his veteran leadership, and third, his defense and speed on the basepaths. Unfortunately, their defenses of Young are even weaker than those of Clayton.

Even forgetting that EY is 36 and nearing his twilight in the big leagues, his career numbers are nothing spectacular: .286 batting average, .361 on-base percentage, .394 slugging percentage, and a .755 OPS. Certainly respectable for a middle infielder or utility player but also not enough to justify playing time on a rebuilding club. He has only hit .300 twice, in 1995 and 1996 at Colorado, and isn't near the player we was back then. He hasn't had a year-end OPS above .800 since '96 and is clearly trending downward.

As for his veteran leadership, EY could instill his wisdom on the youngsters from the bench while filling a utility role. Having him on the club seems reasonable but starting him everyday does not.

With regard to his defense, what can I say? Put simply, he is perhaps the worst defensive second baseman in all of the Major Leagues. His Zone Rating is .778, fourth from the bottom in all of baseball and third last in the NL, and his Range Factor of 4.57 is sixth from the bottom in the majors and second last in the National League. His fielding percentage is last in all of baseball and he is tied for the MLB lead in errors. No matter how you look at it, he is a terrible defender and a liability every time he steps on the field.

Is this necessarily bad? Of course, but not morbidly-so. If EY was young and putting up great offensive numbers like, say, Jose Vidro, his defensive woes could be overlooked. But as an aging veteran with below-average offensive production, there is simply no reason to keep him in the starting lineup. And for those that criticize Ginter's glove, it is almost certain that he would be a significant defensive upgrade over Eric Young.

The only leg the supporters of EY have left to stand on is stolen bases. In that regard, they are right: EY can steal a lot of bases. However, the value of the additional stolen bases has to be weighed against the increase in offensive production and defense skill as well as the need to evaluate a younger player. While speed on the basepaths is a plus, it is not so valuable to justify EY's spot in the lineup. And as a utility player and pinch-hitter/pinch-runner, the club could still take advantage of Young's foot-speed.

Playing Time & Trade-offs

In addition to the middle infielders, Ginter is losing playing time to Wes Helms at third, Geoff Jenkins in left, and John Vander Wal and Brady Clark in right. While the former players deserve to be in the lineup, they could use an occasional game off. As for the latter two, Vander Wal and Clark, Ginter could easily be worked into the rotation so that he gets a start every 5-10 games.

Thus far in 2003, here are the playing time totals for the players competing with Ginter:

Geoff Jenkins, 297 plate appearances
Wes Helms, 279
Royce Clayton, 278
Eric Young, 278
John Vander Wal, 191
Keith Ginter, 140
Brady Clark, 121

Of those 140 at-bats, 17 were in a pinch-hitting situation and a good number came as a late-inning replacement. If, however, Ginter would have been given one start a week at second and one at shortstop (for about 22 starts or 88 plate appearances), the breakdown would look more like this:

Royce Clayton, 234
Eric Young, 234
Keith Ginter, 222

Throw in a few starts at third and in the outfield and he'd be closer to 300 at-bats than the 150 he's still working on as-is. For those that feel he doesn't deserve playing time because it would trade-off with that of other players, are you really that passionate about an extra 22 plate appearances for Clayton and Young? If so, why?

Answering the Critics

Despite his excellent Minor League track record, there is no shortage of critics who assert that Ginter is anything but a Major League-calibre player. These nay-sayers point to a number of things: his poor defense, his lack of power, the difference between Minor and Major league talent, and his age, to name a few. I'll address each of them in turn.

First, his mediocre defense has already been established. Nonetheless, he would not present a significant downgrade at shortstop or the outfield and would actually be a substantial improvement at second base. If his offensive production mirrors that of his past, the increase in runs created will more than make up for any defensive miscues.

As for his lack of power, this seems a bit shortsighted. Yes, he hasn't hit as many home runs as one would like. But for a 5-foot-10 infielder, his power numbers are respectable. He hit 34 home runs in a season and a half of Double-A ball and, more importantly, has consistently put up gaudy double and extra-base hit numbers. Not only that, but his high on-base percentages demonstrate a strong knowledge of the strike zone, a trait that is likely to transfer better to the big leagues than home run power. Regardless, it is almost certain that, with regular playing time, Ginter will put up good numbers - 20 or 25 home runs don't seem out of the question.

The next argument critics of Ginter make is that he is a AAAA player, a career Minor Leaguer, and that those statistics are not predictive of his big league production. To them, I'll let Bill James respond (from a recent Slate.com interview):

"Well, no, there is no such thing as a Four A hitter. That idea, as I understand it, envisions a "gap" between the majors and Triple A, with some players who fall into the gap. There is no such gap. In fact, there is a very significant overlap between the major leagues and Triple A. Many of the players in Triple A are better than many of the players in the majors."

He continues:

"When there is a disconnect between a player's major league and minor league records, some people want to ascribe this to some mystical difference between major league baseball and minor league baseball. Unless you can say specifically what that difference is, this is akin to magical thinking - asserting that there is some magical "major league ability," which is distinct from the ability to play baseball. The same sorts of disconnects happen routinely in the middle of major league careers - not often as a percentage, but they happen. Everybody who plays rotisserie baseball knows that some guys you paid big money for because they were good last year will stink this year. It is not necessary or helpful to create some magical "major league ability" to explain those occasional disconnects between major league and minor league seasons."

Not only that, but Ginter's Major League numbers are nothing to laugh at: .261 batting average, .347 on-base percentage, .356 slugging percentage, and a .704 OPS in 88 games and 188 at-bats. That's not world-beating production but it is not so putrid as to justify the exaggerated claims of Ginter's skeptics.

Finally, Keith Ginter is only 27 years old. He is certainly no longer a young prospect with a long future ahead of him. That said, he is a lot younger than Royce Clayton and almost ten years younger than Eric Young, the two players who are most obstructive to his regular playing time. He is about the same age as Scott Podsednik, Wes Helms, Geoff Jenkins, and Richie Sexson, and none of them are being called "washed up" or "old." In fact, the latter two are being given opportunities to play everyday for the first time in their respective careers and are producing beyond expectations. The latter two are both having excellent seasons and one or both is likely to make the All Star team. Why is Ginter not also being given that opportunity?

Boosting Trade Value

The other thing that critics of Ginter point to is the need for Eric Young to play a lot so as to boost his trade value. To them, I can only say that if MLB General Managers do not know what they are getting with EY by now, they're never going to know. With thousands upon thousands of plate appearances already under his belt, a few more aren't going to significantly impact his trade value. In fact, if anything, playing him everyday might deter others from picking him up for fear that he is worn down. For a 36 year old who relies on speed, every game brings him closer to the inevitable abyss of retirement. By saving his legs, we might be able to better extract value for him on the open market.

Conclusion

The Brewers will not make the playoffs this year and will more likely than not end up in the NL Central cellar. This year, maybe more than ever, is one whose focus is on rebuilding. Doug Melvin, Gord Ash, and the rest of the front office have established "evaluating talent" as their goal for this year. Certainly, this is consistent with the treatment of Alex Sanchez, Jeffrey Hammonds, Wes Helms, Scott Podsednik, Brady Clark, Matt Ford, and Glendon Rusch. But it is not consistent with the treatment of Keith Ginter. With a history of offensive prowess at the college and Minor League levels and an ability to play four or more positions, the club should have no problem getting Keith consistent playing time. If he fails, so be it... at least we will have a better evaluation of his abilities and we won't waste money resigning him for the future. But as it currently stands, Ginter is not getting an opportunity to prove that he belongs. Unlike many other players on the 2003 roster, including Clayton and Young, Keith Ginter has the potential to be a part of the next winning Brewers' team. For that reason alone, the organization needs to finally bite the bullet and fulfill the commitment they made to the fans and to the players this off-season. Give Keith Ginter a chance... for the last 5 years, that's all he's asked for.

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One thing that I am hoping to do with this weblog is write semi-regular "big" articles that go into more depth than the day-to-day posts. This, the first of these feature articles, is adapted from several posts on the BrewerFan.net Message Board. Comments can be directed to Bill.

Frustration

In one of the ugliest games of the season, the Milwaukee Brewers lost 9-1 to the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday night at Wrigley in front of 40,389. Ruben Quevedo managed only 2/3rds of an inning and gave up 4 earned runs on 5 hits, including two home runs, dropping his record to 1-4 and balooning his ERA to 6.53. Manager Ned Yost had a short leash for the struggling starter and brought in Matt Ford with two outs in the first.

Ford went 3 and 1/3rds innings and allowed one earned run on a sacrifice fly and one hit (an infield single), two walks, and four strikeouts. He was yanked after the fourth in favor of a pinch hitter after throwing 57 pitches, 32 of which were strikes, and left the Brewers still with a chance to get back in the game.

What happened instead was an absolute pitching meltdown. Luis Vizcaino went 1 and 2/3rds innings and gave up 3 earned runs on 3 home runs, including one of the longest home runs in Wrigley history by Sammy Sosa and another by Chicago pitcher Kerry Wood. Brooks Kieschnick was called on to stop the bleeding but allowed another home run, going 1.1 innings and allowing only that one hit.

The Brewers scored their sole run in the first on a tape measure shot by Geoff Jenkins that cleared the right field bleachers and landed on the street below. The Crew managed 9 hits including a 3-4 night by Wes Helms but baserunning blunders and double plays combined to leave six men on base.

Eddie Perez and Ned Yost were both ejected in the eighth after arguing balls and strikes with homeplate umpire Andy Fletcher. It was Yost's first ejection of the year and it was crystal clear that he has had enough of the dismal pitching performances that have plagued the club all year.

Don't be surprised if Ruben Quevedo and Luis Vizcaino have pitched their last innings as Brewers tonight. Whether they are sent to Triple-A, waived, or outright released is dependent upon a variety of factors but at this point the club has nowhere to go but up. Look for Dave Burba, Pasquel Coco, Francisco Campos, or Joe Roa to get a call-up before the Twins series this weekend.

The Brewers drop to 30-45 with the loss including 2-6 against the rival Cubs. Ben Sheets (6-6, 4.21) goes against Shawn Estes (6-6, 5.80) tomorrow in a 1:05 start time. Sheets pitched well his last time out while Estes managed to go only an inning while giving up 6 earned runs. The Crew will try to get back in the win column after two lopsided losses to Minnesota and Chicago.

Huntsville Prospects Shine

For a lot of Brewers fans, the Double-A team in Huntsville is providing a lot of hope for the future. After winning the first-half title in the Southern League, the Stars have received several honors over the past few days.

First, first-baseman-turned-third-baseman Corey Hart was featured in a profile article at MilwaukeeBrewers.com. The 6-foot-6 power hitting 21 year old from Bowling Green, Kentucky has put up fantastic numbers and he often draws comparisons to current Brewers' star, Richie Sexson.

[T]he Brewers are banking on Hart making Miller Park his full-time playing facility within the next couple years, potentially with several of his current Huntsville teammates.

"Our whole staff feels he's going to play in the big leagues, it's just a matter of when," [Brewers' Director of Player Development Reid] Nichols said.

Second, the rosters for the 2003 All Star Futures Game were announced Monday. The Brewers' representatives are all from Huntsville: shortstop J.J. Hardy and centerfielder Dave Krynzel will fill the team's two playing spots while Stars' manager Frank Kremblas will help coach the squad. The game will be held at U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago on July 13th and will be televised live on ESPN2.

Krynzel, 21, the Brewers' first-round draft pick in 2000, leads Huntsville with a .315 batting average and .407 on-base percentage. He also leads the league with 28 stolen bases.

"It's going to be a great opportunity," Krynzel said. "I'll be happy to play with all those guys up there. They're all great players. It should be a good learning experience."

Hardy, 20, a second-round draft pick in 2001, is batting .290 with nine home runs and 40 RBI.

"I didn't even think about it until a couple of weeks ago when my agent said something to me about it," Hardy said.

"It means a lot to me. That game's a big deal. I'm happy the Brewers want me to go and represent them there."

Finally, the Journal-Sentinel is reporting that pitchers Mike Jones, Luis Martinez, Derek Lee, and Matt Parker will join Hart, Krynzel, and Hardy as Huntsville's representatives at the July 8th Southern League All Star Game. According to the Southern League's website, the official list of Western Division All Stars will not be released until June 27th.

Prince Fielder Interview at BrewerFan.net

As part of its continuing series of interviews with minor league prospects and other members of the organization, BrewerFan.net has published a one-on-one interview with the club's 2002 number one pick, Prince Fielder. Conducted by Patrick Ebert at Beloit's Pohlman Field during BF.net's FanFest 2003, the interview covers Prince's on-the-field work as well as his off-the-field personality.

BF: What do the Brewers expect from you?

PF: I think they want me to hit pretty good, and fielding too. They really stress that, they want me to play good defense, so I'm trying to go out & do that for them. I think they care more about my defense because defense should never have a slump really, it should be there every day. But with hitting, I'm not going to get a hit every time, but I think I can make the routine play every time. Good defense helps the team out every day even if you're not hitting.

A full archive of all the BrewerFan.net pieces is available on the site. Among the highlights are interviews with prospects Manny Parra and J.J. Hardy and radio broadcaster Jim Powell.

Kinney Struggles, Twins Salvage Series Finale

Coming off his worst start of the season, Matt Kinney again struggled Sunday in an 8-3 loss to Minnesota. Kinney went 6 and a 1/3 innings and gave up 6 earned runs on 7 hits including 2 home runs. The loss dropped his record to 5-6 while his ERA continued to climb, now at 4.58.

The Brewers' bullpen also had a poor showing as Valerio De Los Santos, Leo Estrella, and Mike DeJean combined to allow 2 earned runs on 5 hits over 2 and 2/3rds. Torii Hunter hit a home run off of Estrella in the eight and Justin Morneau followed it up with a tape measure shot off DeJean in the ninth that stuck in the centerfield scoreboard.

After very productive offensive outputs in the first two games of the series, Milwaukee's offense managed only three runs despite accumulating 11 hits off of Twins pitchers. Geoff Jenkins led the way with a 3-5 day including a solo home run, two RBI, and two runs scored. Eddie Perez continued to swing a hot bat, going 3-4, and Scott Podsednik hit his fifth triple to go along with a walk.

Despite the loss, the Brewers won their first series since the doubleheader sweep of New York on June 5th. Attendance at the three-game series was among the highest of the season; 81,331 enjoyed the weather at beautiful Miller Park. The Brewers head to Chicago to take on the Cubs starting Tuesday while Minnesota makes its way back to the Metrodome to face the White Sox.