Have You Started A Ford Lately?

Despite assurances by Ned Yost that "nothing is set in stone," reporter Adam McAlvey of MLB.com is reporting that Matt Ford will likely get the start when Glendon Rusch's spot in the rotation comes up next weekend. Because of an off day on Monday, the Crew is able to defer the decision until later in the week but all signs point to Ford getting a chance to start.

The Rule Five pick from Toronto, Ford pitched 114 innings last season in the High-A South Atlantic League with the Dunedin Blue Jays. He has given up only 6 earned runs in 21 innings of relief work in Milwaukee this year, posting a 2.08 ERA and 13 strikeouts to only 9 walks. His most recent appearance came against St. Louis when he pitched four bullpen-saving innings of scoreless ball.

Two days after Ford pitched four scoreless innings of relief against the Cardinals and one day after Rusch accepted a demotion to Triple-A, Ford threw a 12-minute bullpen session with pitching coach Mike Maddux and bullpen coach Bill Castro. It was his first side session since last season, when Ford was a starting pitcher in the Blue Jays' minor league chain.

That was not the only hint. Ford was teamed with the starting pitchers for a game the hurlers play during batting practice, when the starters and relievers square off in a sort of hitting contest. And instead of heading to the bullpen come game time, Ford spent the game on the bench in the Brewers dugout.

If Yost does indeed decide to start Ford against the Twins next weekend in Minneapolis, look for him to be on a fairly strict pitch count. With a 13-man pitching staff and only 4 starters (not counting Ford), the Brewers will have some flexibility when it comes to eating up innings should he be unable to go deep in the ballgame.

Hitting Comes Alive As Crew Romps The Twins

In front of nearly 31,000 strong Saturday night the Brewers romped the AL Central leading Twins, 8-1. Blessed with an excellent start by Wayne Franklin, Milwaukee managed to hit three longballs while limiting Minnesota to only 5 hits. Franklin went 7 innings and gave up 1 earned run to improve his record to 4-5 with an ERA just over 5. Recent Indianapolis call-ups Dan Kolb and John Foster each pitched no-hit innings of relief to secure the victory for the Brewers.

Wes Helms led the offense with one of the best games of his career. The third baseman went 3 for 3 with 2 home runs, a sacrifice fly, a single, and 5 batted in. John Vander Wal added a solo shot and Keith Ginter hit another deep sacrifice fly in a pinch hitting role.

The Crew looks to sweep the series Sunday afternoon behind their most consistent starter, Matt Kinney. Kenny Rogers will try to stop the bleeding for a Twins team that has lost seven of their last ten games and is now only a game in front of the surging Royals. The Brewers are now 30-43 and only two games back of the Pirates for fifth place in the NL Central.

First Day of Summer Comparison

On the first day of summer, it seems like a good time to see how the 2003 Brewers stack up with the 2002 club. Through games played on June 20, here is the breakdown:

All things considered, pretty similar. The only significant difference between the two seasons thus far has been the home/road split, something that has been discussed in depth over the past few weeks.

Another interesting thing to look back on is the Brewers' lineup on June 20th of last year. The team hosted the Houston Astros and lost 9-3.

Thanks to RetroSheet.org, one of the greatest websites in the history of the universe, here is the box score from last year's game:

Houston Astros 9, Milwaukee Brewers 3

Day - Game Played on June 20, 2002 (D) at Miller Park

HOU N    2  0  0    7  0  0    0  0  0  -   9  9  0
MIL N    0  0  0    1  1  0    0  0  1  -   3 10  1

BATTING
Houston Astros        AB   R   H RBI      BB   K      PO   A
Lugo ss                4   2   1   1       1   1       0   7
Vizcaino 2b            4   2   1   0       1   0       2   3
Berkman cf             5   1   1   5       0   1       5   0
Bagwell 1b             5   0   1   1       0   1      13   0
Ward lf                4   1   1   0       1   0       0   0
Hidalgo rf             3   1   0   0       1   0       2   0
Blum 3b                4   0   1   1       0   0       0   1
Ausmus c               4   1   3   1       0   0       5   0
Miller p               2   1   0   0       0   1       0   2
  Stone p              1   0   0   0       0   0       0   0
  Dotel p              0   0   0   0       0   0       0   1
Totals                36   9   9   9       4   4      27  14

FIELDING - 
DP: 1.

BATTING - 
2B: Vizcaino (5,off Wright); Lugo (6,off Wright).
HR: Berkman (22,4th inning off Wright 3 on, 1 out).
SH: Miller (4,off Figueroa).

Milwaukee Brewers     AB   R   H RBI      BB   K      PO   A
Young 2b               5   1   1   1       0   0       0   4
Houston 3b             4   1   3   1       1   0       1   0
Hammonds cf            2   0   0   0       0   1       3   0
  Thompson cf          3   0   0   0       0   1       2   0
Sexson 1b              4   1   2   0       0   0       5   1
Stairs rf              4   0   1   0       0   1       2   0
Hernandez ss           1   0   1   0       0   0       2   0
  Loretta ph,ss        2   0   0   0       1   0       1   0
Ochoa lf               3   0   1   1       1   0       6   0
Machado c              4   0   1   0       0   0       5   0
Wright p               1   0   0   0       0   1       0   0
  Figueroa p           2   0   0   0       0   1       0   0
  Harris ph            1   0   0   0       0   0       0   0
Totals                36   3  10   3       3   5      27   5

FIELDING - 
E: Young (7).

BATTING - 
2B: Hernandez (10,off Miller); Sexson (16,off Miller); Stairs (4,off Stone).
HR: Young (2,5th inning off Miller 0 on, 1 out); Houston (6,9th inning off
Dotel 0 on, 2 out).

PITCHING
Houston Astros        IP     H  HR   R  ER  BB   K
Miller W(3-2)          6     7   1   2   2   3   4
Stone                  2     2   0   0   0   0   0
Dotel                  1     1   1   1   1   0   1
Totals                 9    10   2   3   3   3   5

Milwaukee Brewers     IP     H  HR   R  ER  BB   K
Wright L(1-5)          3.1   7   1   9   8   3   3
Figueroa               5.2   2   0   0   0   1   1
Totals                 9.0   9   1   9   8   4   4

WP: Miller (3).

Umpires: Mike Everitt, Doug Eddings, Chris Guccione, John Shulock

Time of Game: 2:39   Attendance: 23278

All told, only two players from last year's starting lineup have remained with the club (Richie Sexson and Eric Young) and none of the substitutes or pitchers are still with Milwaukee.

Bill Hall (?!?)

In the strange but true category, reports are positive about "can't-miss" turned "can't-hit" infield prospect Bill Hall. The much maligned 23 year old has put up respectable numbers at Triple-A Indianapolis only a few months after embarrassing himself in a late season call-up.

.257 AVG, .306 OBP, .661 SLG, .667 OPS, 3 HR, 21 RBI, 17 BB, 57 K, 5 SB

It's not exactly world-beating stuff but it is a lot better than the .574 OPS he put up last year. Jim Goulart, the "Resident Minor League Research Director" at BrewerFan.net (aka MassBrew), posted his first-hand account of Hall and the rest of the Indians squad in an enlightening post on the BF message board. If you haven't checked out the site, what are you waiting for? There is simply no better source of information about the Brewers and their minor league system than BrewerFan.

I would expect that Hall will get at least another cup of coffee with the big league club but a lot could hinge on whether Eric Young and Royce Clayton remain with the team. Hall has been splitting time between shortstop and second base at Indy and the organization would do well to give him another chance.

With an infield of Enrique Cruz, Keith Ginter, Wes Helms, and Bill Hall (along with Richie Sexson) the Brewers could make good on their promise to spend the 2003 season evaluating talent. As much "veteran leadership" and sometimes-good-play as Young and Clayton provide, neither will likely be part of next year's club and neither will be part of the next winning Brewers' team.

I never thought I'd write this, but what better time to give Bill Hall another chance to make good on his potential?

Sheets Dominant in Extra-Innings Win

Just as it started to look like the Brewers would never again get a quality start, Ben Sheets put together 8 innings of 3 hit ball and the Brewers beat the Twins in extra-innings, 3-2. Sheets' line is his best of the season:

8 IP, 0 ER, 2 R, 1 BB, 8 K, 0 HR

And these weren't the light-hitting Dodgers or Padres but the AL Central Leading Twins, a team that is more than capable of hitting the long ball. Ben needed only 96 pitches and lowered his ERA to a respectable 4.21.

The Brewers' defense almost let an excellent start get away by committing two errors, both of which cost the Crew a run. Minnesota scored in the fourth when Corey Koskie walked, moved to second on a ground out by Torii Hunter, and scored when catcher Keith Osik attempted to throw him out at third after a wild pitch. In the sixth with the score 2-1 in favor of the Crew, Eric Young let a routine groundball by Hunter get by him; he later scored on a sacrifice fly by Dustin Mohr.

The Twins, on the other hand, showed off their defensive prowess with several Web Gem quality plays in the outfield. Torii Hunter made a leaping grab in right center to rob Wes Helms of at least a double and Jacque Jones crashed into the manual scoreboard in left, managing to nab a rocket by Keith Ginter.

Milwaukee scored its first two runs in the sixth on a two-out single by Geoff Jenkins that scored Eric Young and Scott Podsednik. After Minnesota tied the score in the sixth and Curtis Leskanic managed to wiggle out of a tenth-inning jam, Royce Clayton led off the bottom half of the inning with a double to right, barely beating the throw at second. He moved to third on a sacrifice fly to deep center by Brooks Kieschnick and scored on a wild pitch by Juan Rincon.

Over 25,000 fans made their way to Miller Park on UWM night, a good percentage of which were Twins fans. The series continues Saturday with a 6:05 start that pits Wayne Franklin against Kyle Lohse.

Anthony Gwynn Signs

The Brewers reached a contract agreement with second-round draft pick Anthony Gwynn on Friday but the financial terms were not disclosed. Gwynn, son of future Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn, will start his professional career in class-A Beloit.

A fleet-footed contact hitter who starred at San Diego State, Gwynn might have to compete with current center-fielder Steve Moss for playing time. There is a chance that Moss will be promoted to High-A High Desert but a more likely scenario may involve one of the two moving to a corner outfield position. The Snappers are in dire need of offense so Gwynn's presence is certain to be appreciated.

The Associated Pres is reporting that the Gwynns, including Anthony and his father Tony, will be at Miller Park on Saturday to work out with the club.

The Brewers have now signed 23 of their 50 draft picks including 10 of their top 12. According to the Journal-Sentinel,

The Brewers also signed their fifth-round pick, Arizona high school catcher Brian Opdyke; North Carolina high school right-hander Ryan Marion, an eighth-rounder; and first baseman Whitney Barrett from Central Oklahoma, an undrafted free agent. They will go to Maryvale in the Arizona Rookie League.

Talks seem to be progressing with #2 overall pick and College Player of the Year Rickie Weeks but the two sides have not yet reached an agreement. It is far too early to grade the club's 2003 draft but the high percentage of early signings is promising.

Update: It turns out Tony Gwynn, Sr. was in Omaha for the College World Series and thus was unable to make it to Miller Park on Saturday. In other news, Anthony prefers to be referred to as "Tony" - so Tony Gwynn, Jr. it is.

Runs Created Year-to-Date

One of the more interesting and historically-accurate metrics for evaluating hitters is their "Runs Created". There are a number of formulas but the most common is as follows:

[(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times (Total bases + .26[BB - IBB + HBP] + .52[SH + SF + SB])] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF)

Using this metric as recorded by ESPN.com, qualified Brewers' hitters rank as follows:

01. Richie Sexson, 51.7 RC (11th in NL)
02. Geoff Jenkins, 45.0 (26th in NL)
03. Eric Young, 35.3 (53rd in NL)
04. Wes Helms, 33.2 (60th in NL)
05. Royce Clayton, 22.2 (82nd in NL)

In order to qualify, a hitter needs to have 3.1 at-bats per team game played. Scott Podsednik would rank 67th in the NL with 33.1 runs created.

Border War Preview

In what is being described by national pundits as an example of meaningless interleague play, the Brewers begin a three-game series this evening with the AL Central-leading Minnesota Twins. A "border war" with a rich history dating back to Milwaukee's time in the American League, the weekend's games are the first half of a six-game home-and-home series between the two rivals. The Twins won the season series last year, 4 games to 2.

In game one tonight at Miller Park, Brewers' struggling ace Ben Sheets squares off against Brad Radke, loser of three-straight and winless since May 19. Radke's last start came at home against Arizona when he surrendered 7 earned runs in 5.1 innings but managed to get a no decision. Sheets was knocked around in Baltimore where Orioles hitters took advantage of his vulnerability to the long ball, scoring 5 earned runs in six innings. Ben looks to get back on track against a Minnesota team that lost 3 of 4 against the division rival Royals while Radke attempts to keep himself in the rotation. With Johan Santana, official pitcher of Aaron's Baseball Blog waiting in the wings, the 30 year old Radke could be facing Glendon Rusch-like consequences if he continues to struggle.

Saturday's matchup pits Wayne Franklin (3-5, 5.38) against Kyle Lohse (6-4, 3.23) in what could be the closest thing to a pitcher's duel these two teams can muster. Franklin has pitched well since his early season struggles but is still nothing more than an average end-of-the-rotation starter while Lohse is 2-0 with a sub 3.5 ERA in his last three starts.

Sunday's series finale gives Matt Kinney (5-5, 4.29) a chance to redeem himself after his worst start of the season, a loss to the Cardinals that saw him give up 5 ER in 3.2 innings. Kinney faces off with 38 year old Kenny Rogers (5-3, 5.14), the soft-tossing left-hander who is pitching for his fifth team in fifteen seasons. He too struggled in his last start, giving up 7 ER in 5 innings against Kansas City. If Kinney can get back on track, the Brewers have a good chance of scoring some runs against Rogers.

It will be interesting to see how many Twins' fans make the trip to Miller Park. It certainly won't be Cubs-esque but the influx of outsiders should give attendence figures a boost.

More On Kapler's Release

The one-time "can't-miss" prospect is apparently drawing a good bit of attention from teams willing to give the 27 year old outfielder another chance. USA Today columnist Rod Beaton devotes a few paragraphs to Kapler in his latest article:

Someone is going to pick up a bargain soon. Outfielder Gabe Kapler became a free agent Thursday.

Kapler, 27, was never Texas general manager John Hart's preferred player, not after Hart signed Carl Everett and especially not after he snared Juan Gonzalez.

The Rangers traded him to Colorado and Coors Field at the deadline last year. The Rockies gave him 119 at-bats. He had a .359 on-base percentage, .445 slugging.

Kapler is a big, brawny man, not so overbuilt he tightened up like Ruben Sierra. Big hitters almost always need regular at-bats. Played regularly, Kapler is a guy who'll pop 20 home runs or more and play the heck out of the outfield. Compare his defense of Larry Walker or Jim Edmonds or Mike Cameron.

Word is out Milwaukee, San Diego, Florida, Boston, Oakland and Los Angeles are showing interest.

I'm not very optimistic about the Brewers being able to outbid the A's and Dodgers, two competitive teams that are in dire need of offense. That said, Kapler already has a good relationship with Brewers' GM Doug Melvin and may decide to reunite with the man who gave him a chance in Texas. If Kapler does sign with Milwaukee, look for him to get some time in rightfield and expect John Vander Wal to be dealt to a contender.

The Beane Count

Giving credence to the arguments of those who blame the Brewers' poor record on pitching, the Brewers rank seventh in the current National League Beane Count and eighteenth overall. Developed by ESPN columnist Rob Neyer and named after Oakland GM Billy Beane, the statistic adds together a team's ranks in home runs hit, walks drawn, home runs allowed, and walks allowed.

The Brewers rank 4th in home runs hit with 85, 6th in walks drawn with 243, 16th in home runs allowed with 102, and 7th in walks allowed with 238.

Topping the NL list is the Philadelphia Phillies who are followed by Atlanta, Colorado, Montreal, San Francisco, and Florida. Behind the Brewers are several division rivals with significantly better records - Houston, St. Louis, Chicago, and Cincinatti - as well as Los Angeles, New York, Arizona, Pittsburgh, and San Diego. The Yankees top the AL list and are followed by Oakland, Boston, Baltimore, and Seattle.

Clearly it is an imperfect metric this early in the season. But if the Brewers retain this high of a Beane Count, look for their record come September to be respectable.

Gabe Kapler Released

Gabe Kapler, the subject of many recent trade rumors, was released today by the Colorado Rockies. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Brewers decide to pick him up. With only four outfielders, one of whom is himself involved in many trade rumors (John Vander Wal), the Brewers should have room for him on the 25-man roster. For that to happen, one of the 13 pitchers will need to go - and that seems inevitable anyway. Whether Glendon Rusch is released or Curtis Leskanic is traded, the staff should be down to 12 or even 11 pitchers in the not too far future.

More on the Kapler situation as it develops.

Matt Ford's Excellence Continues

The feel-good story of the year continues. Matt Ford, one of Milwaukee's two picks in last year's Rule 5 draft, has pitched very well in limited work and is now seeing action in more crucial situations. Taken from Toronto, Ford is a 22 year old left-hander with good stuff and outstanding composure who at this time last year was pitching for the High-A Dunedin Blue Jays. In today's series finale against St. Louis, the bullpen was once again forced to clean up the starting pitcher's mess. Who did manager Ned Yost turn to? Matt Ford. His line is the best of his season:

4 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 K

Even more impressive is the fact that this appearance came against the red-hot Cardinals who have torched Brewers' pitching over the past four days. From ESPN's game log:

St. Louis 6th:
-O Palmeiro safe at first on error by first baseman R Sexson.
-E Perez struck out swinging.
-A Pujols flied out to right.
-J Drew flied out to left.

St. Louis 7th:
-E Renteria flied out to center.
-K Robinson flied out to left.
-J Girardi flied out to right.

St. Louis 8th:
-B Hart walked.
-W Delgado flied out to right.
-O Palmeiro grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, B Hart out at second.
-L Painter grounded out to first.

St. Louis 9th:
-A Pujols lined out to center.
-J Drew doubled to deep right.
-E Renteria flied out to right.
-K Robinson grounded out to pitcher.

That's pretty impressive. Pujols and Renteria were both 0-2 and he only allowed three baserunners in four innings. Only J.D. Drew made it to second base and he was promptly stranded. All told, this was a very solid performance against one of the best hitting teams in baseball when the Brewers really needed it. Not only did he keep the game respectable, but he gave his fellow relievers a chance to rest before the weekend series against arch-rival Minnesota. For that, he deserves a lot of praise.

There has been some discussion about moving him to the starting rotation but the general consensus is that it would hurt his development. Manager Ned Yost has been very diligent about setting him up to succeed and the Brewers have a history of injuring "can't miss" pitching prospects. To jeopardize Ford's bright future to win a few more games in 2003 is short-sighted and I sincerely hope that the organization will agree.

His ERA is now a paltry 2.08.

Pitching Woes Continue

After a pathetic eight run, one inning outing by Glendon Rusch on Wednesday night, Ruben Quevedo needed to eat up some innings in the series finale this afternoon. Unfortunately, he somehow managed to match Rusch' dismal start by giving up eight earned runs in five innings. That completes a dismal run through the starting rotation that started last Sunday.

06/14 - Ben Sheets - 6 IP, 5 ER at Orioles
06/16 - Wayne Franklin - 5 IP, 4 ER vs. Cardinals
06/17 - Matt Kinney - 3.2 IP, 5 ER vs. Cardinals
06/18 - Glendon Rusch - 1 IP, 8 ER vs. Cardinals
06/19 - Ruben Quevedo - 5 IP, 8 ER vs. Cardinals

The Crew somehow managed to win the first game of the Cardinals series but is now 1-4 during the last run through the rotation. In that stretch, Brewers' starters have managed to go only 20 and 2/3 innings while giving up an astonishing 30 earned runs. That translates into a 13+ ERA and just over 4 innings per start.

It would appear that Glendon's last hope of remaining in the rotation was lost with last night's debacle and Ruben might be next in line. Much has been written about the lack of viable alternatives but it seems like the situation has finally gone too far. Dave Burba, Pasquel Coco, and Joe Roa are all doing at least moderately well at Triple-A Indianapolis and 28 year old Derrek Lee deserves a chance to prove that his consistency at Double-A Huntsville is not a fluke. Regardless of what the organization decides, it is unlikely that the starting rotation could get much worse.

The Brewers are now 28-43. After some promising ball early in the month, it's back to the cellar.