Bill Batterman is the By now, everyone should know the story. In early June, the Diamondbacks completed a rain-delayed four-game sweep of the Braves in Atlanta to improve to 34-22. One of the most compelling stories in baseball, Arizona was in first place in the competitive National League West and looked like a legitimate playoff contender.
When they returned home to Phoenix, however, the news broke that veteran reliever Jason Grimsley was embroiled in a federal steroid investigation and had admitted to using Human Growth Hormone, an undetectable but illegal performance enhancing drug that has become a household name thanks to allegations surrounding Mark McGwire, Barry Bonds, and a host of other big leaguers. Grimsley was released on June seventh but the media firestorm that ensued took on a life of its own, engulfing the Diamondbacks’ clubhouse. From June fifth through the end of the month, Arizona went 4-20 to fall four games below five hundred and out of the division lead.
Since the calendar turned to July, however, the Diamondbacks seem to be back on track. Winners of five of their last eight games before the All-Star Break, the Snakes remain in last place in the NL West but are just five games behind the front-running Padres and two-and-a-half back in the hyper-competitive Wild Card race.
On the mound, the Snakes have received an incredible three months from Brandon Webb and a mostly forgettable three months from everyone else. While ne’er-do-wells like Russ Ortiz and Kevin Jarvis forced the team to endure a parade of baserunners, Arizona has been quick to pull the plug on malfunctioning hurlers. Of the 20 pitchers that have climbed the hill in purple and teal, all but Webb have posted Value Over Replacement Pitcher (VORP)s of between +11 and -7. By fielding a stable of reliably replacement-level arms behind Webb, the Diamondbacks have quietly accumulated the eighth-highest VORP among pitching staffs in the National League despite pitching in baseball’s most extreme hitter’s park.
Even the bullpen has been surprisingly effective with Mets-import Jorge Julio filling in nicely for demoted-to-mop-up duties Jose Valverde, who has posted an incredible 45-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 30 and two-thirds innings but sports an ERA over eight thanks to a .296 opposing batting average. Former-Brewer Luis Vizcaino has also been solid, fanning 43 while walking just 15 in 37 and two-thirds innings while Randy Choate, Casey Daigle, Brandon Medders, and Brandon Lyon have all been at least occasionally reliable options for manager Bob Melvin, who recently had his contract extended.
While the casual observer would see the Diamondbacks’ offense as a strength—they rank sixth in the NL in runs—a closer evaluation reveals that much of their perceived clout is a product of Chase Field. At home, the Arizona offense has combined for a 790 OPS; away from Phoenix, that number declines to just 721, 13th-best among senior circuit clubs. Among the most extreme splits is that belonging to Chad Tracy, whose solid overall line (.277/.332/.454) masks his All-Star-caliber performance at home (.302/.350/.537) and his replacement-level performance on the road (.255/.317/.380).
Even when accounting for the Chase Field effect, however, the Diamondbacks have received strong offensive performances from outfielders Eric Byrnes and Shawn Green and catcher Johnny Estrada. Byrnes is hitting .292 with twelve homers and a team-best 874 OPS, more than 100 points better than his career mark of 761. Green, meanwhile, leads the team’s hitters in Win Probability Added and Estrada ranks sixth in the league in VORP among backstops.
The Brewers will have their work cut out for them against Webb, almost certainly the best pitcher in baseball during the first half. With their top three of Doug Davis, Chris Capuano, and Dave Bush toeing the rubber, however, Milwaukee can legitimately claim the favorable pitching matchup in the other two contests. And with Capuano on the mound opposite Webb, himself eighth in baseball in VORP, even the third pairing isn’t a lopsided one on paper.
Coming off a disappointing series loss against the Cubs to close out the first half, the Brewers will have to ignore the heat and play at the top of their games to get back on track and climb back into the NL Central race.